Super Bowl Sunday

Posted: February 2, 2014 in NFL

Well folks, the day is here. Lucky for you, I get to tell you my final pick for the last football game of the year. Went 2-0 in the Conference champions picks which puts me at 7-2-1 for the playoffs. Not too shabby. So take a seat, place your bets and drink all the beer you can because it’s Super Bowl Sunday!

Seahawks @ Broncos (-3)- The line moved around a bit this week but it looks like it’s solid at Broncos -3. Big mistake by Vegas. I love, love, love the Seahawks today. I got to watch a good amount of each of these teams this year and I think Seattle is a better overall team. Historically, when you have a great defense against a great offense, the defense has the upper hand and ends up winning. I have no idea why this happens but it does. This game comes down to the Seattle offense against the Broncos defense. People are over looking the loss of the Broncos top D-back Chris Harris way too much. When you are missing your best corner, that’s a huge loss especially when your defense wasn’t that good to begin with. I think Russel Wilson once again will need to play well in order for the Seahawks to win. Marshawn Lynch can’t do it himself, but Wilson needs to be efficient like he has been all year. For the Broncos, they need to protect Peyton. Plain and simple. I’m not sure if this offensive line has seen a defense that can get at the quarterback like the Seahawks can all year. I think that is the difference in this game. Peyton is great when he can sit back and let his receivers get open. There’s no quarterback better. But if you get even just pressure on Peyton he gets very antsy in the pocket because he doesn’t want to get hit and he makes mistakes. He throws bad interceptions which can change this game in a second. I think it is going to be a long day for Peyton and I actually think Percy Harvin might be a huge factor in the outcome of this game.

Tbow’s Pick- Seahawks +3

Final Score- Seahawks 21 Broncos 10

There you have it. Go win some money and I’ll see ya September.

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Championship Weekend Picks

Posted: January 19, 2014 in NFL

Last week was much better for me. 3-1 and I feel extremely confident going into this weekend. Overall I’m at 5-2-1 and if you were betting with me you would be pretty happy about that. So today we have one good game and one blowout game. Bet the house this weekend.

Patriots @ Broncos (-5)- This spread should be 10, but I think Vegas felt bad. Even though I do this every time and the Patriots usually do the opposite of what I think, this week will be different. The worst thing that happened to the Patriots last week was the weatherman saying it was going to be 60 degrees and sunny in Denver. The Broncos manhandled the Patriots in the first half then just got caught up in a comeback that should never happen in professional sports. Flukey, and the cold wind was a factor. But you just have to face the facts sometimes. The Patriots defense isn’t that good, and their offense is worse. Peyton is going to build a lead today early and I guarantee you Blount won’t be running through holes big enough to fit a truck. Maybe it’s just me being a hater, but I will tell you all I hate Peyton way more than I hate Brady so it cancels out. This is just logic. Patriots shouldn’t be here, Broncos should. Plain as that. Patriots secondary couldn’t stop LaVon Brazil last week so I’m pretty confident that Decker and Thomas are about to have a field day on that awful secondary.

Tbow’s Pick- Broncos -5

49ers @ Seahawks (-3)- This game is going to be the best game of the playoffs so far. I know the 49ers got absolutely embarassed at Seattle earlier this year but playoffs are a whole different ball game. The two best defenses in the league going head to head in the loudest stadium in the NFL. They both have young quarterbacks who can extend plays with their legs and both have veteran running backs who can run any linebacker over. On paper this is as even a matchup as you will ever get. 49ers have been here before and know what it takes to get it done, but I think it is Seattle’s turn. Their defense is going to obviously be the reason they win, but I think they will need Russel Wilson to throw a couple touchdowns to win today. San Fran’s defense will not let Lynch beat them and it’s going to take Wilson’s best game of the playoffs to win. This will be a nail biter but I think Seattle pulls it out in the end.

Tbow’s Pick- Seahawks -3

NFL Divisional Round Preview

Posted: January 11, 2014 in NFL

Last week I gotta admit was a little disappointing. No let me rephrase that. I wanted to hang myself from my ceiling fan. The Eagles just ripped my heart out, AGAIN, and got everyone’s hopes up, AGAIN. And that’s all I have to say about that. As far as my picks went last week, it could have been worse. 2-1-1, granted the Colts had no business covering that spread or winning. But I am EXTREMELY confident in this weeks picks so if there was ever a week to ride with me it’s now.

Saints @ Seahawks (-10.5)- I don’t care who the team is, if you are in the playoffs and 10 point favorites you aren’t going to cover. End of story. No explanation needed. This will be a close game as most are in the playoffs and that’s all you need to know. Saints may even win this one, just sayin.

Tbow’s Pick- Saints +10.5

Colt’s @ Patriots (-8.5)- Here’s another high spread but sneakily I think the Patroits might roll them. This is the toughest game to decide on by far. I’m leaning towards the Colts and points because of the poor weather. Sure it is going to hurt the Colts offense too but that’s why I think this will be a low scoring affair and a tough one to win by more than a touchdown.

Tbow’s Pick- Colt’s +8.5

49ers @ Panthers (PK)- This one is so tough for Vegas that they aren’t even throwing a spread on here. Pick em straight up. But it’s a no brainer. 49ers have been here before. They did it last week in a much more hostile environment. Panthers had a good run but nothing about them screams deep playoff run.

Tbow’s Pick – 49ers

Chargers @ Broncos (-10.5)- Here’s another one. Sure the Broncos are a great team but the Chargers just beat them at Denver a few weeks ago. This is Peyton Mannings biggest game since his Super Bowl win, maybe even more pressure because if he can’t win this it will solidify him as a choke artist. My philosophy is in the Broncos favor this week though because I always say it’s extremely hard to beat a team twice in one season. Broncos will win but I don’t think they will cover. I can see the Chargers running it and controlling some of the clock making it hard to win by double digits.

Tbow’s Pick- Chargers +10.5

imagesToday marks the beginning of the NFL Playoffs which means it’s time for me to tell you how you can make some money. I have to be honest though, this year might be one of the toughest years to pick the winners. Every game it seems like could go either way and to me it’s one of the most balanced out fields in a long time. Except the Broncos. They’re good. But I hate them. Anyway, here are you’re expert picks for the two games today and tomorrow.

Chiefs @ Colts (+1)- Here’s one of the most intriguing games of the first round. You have the Chiefs who may be the biggest fraud team in the NFL and the Colts who are the best Jeckyl and Hyde team of the season. To me the Colts are a better team on paper. Losing Reggie Wayne was a big blow offensively but they’re young wide receivers have picked it up and their defense has been playing pretty good. The Chiefs seem to have lost their purpose in life after losing to the Broncos and their defense has just disappeared. They’ve lost 5 of their last 7 games including a demoralizing home loss to the Colts in week 16 which makes me think the Colts will roll today. Andy Reid has a history of not getting it done in the playoffs and the Chiefs just simply put are playing their worst football at the worst time of the year.

Tbow’s Pick- 30-14 Colts +1

Saints @ Eagles (-3)- Everyone knows I am an Eagles fan so this pick may be biased, but let’s be real when I have ever done something like that? I have high hopes for the Eagles in the playoffs this season. The stars have aligned and they can very well have a smooth road to the NFC Championship game. Saints are 3-5 on the road this season and have always struggled in poor weather conditions. The Eagles have also won 7 of their last 8 games and that is the recipe for deep playoff success in recent years. It’s not always the better team on paper who wins this time of year, it’s the teams that are playing the best and the Eagles are doing that. They played a playoff game last week against Dallas and I believe they are ready to get their first playoff game in forever today. I expect the Eagles to get to Drew Brees on defense and make his life hell tonight. So let’s go Birds!

Tbow’s Pick- 27-17 Eagles -3

Chargers @ Bengals (-7)- Very interesting game here. Biggest spread of the first round and in the playoffs I almost always take the points. Both teams have had some impressive wins as of late but it is just sticking in my brain that San Diego should have lost to the Cheifs last week who sat all of their starters. Andy Dalton hasn’t been able to get out of the first round but he’s built some experience now and there’s no question the Bengals are a much better team. I also say every year how hard it is in the NFL to beat a team twice, and the Bengals beat the Chargers in week 13, 17-10 so you know what, I think I will take the underdog in this one. I really like Keenan Allen and I think this game will come down to a last second field goal but could go either way.

Tbow’s Pick- 21-20 Chargers +7

49ers @ Packers (+3)- Was very surprised to see Green Bay getting 3 points at home in a playoff game. Don’t see that very often. It is gonna be a bit nippy out in Green Bay but I don’t see that as an advantage or disadvantage for either team. Both have big running backs who can pound the ball all day. The difference will be if Green Bay’s defense can limit the big plays. This is one of those games that really can go either way, but the Packers offense is much better than the 49ers offense now that Rodgers is back so that is why I will give them the slight edge.

Tbow’s Pick- 24-20 Packers +3

So there ya have it. Put you’re money where my mouth is because I don’t have any, so take my advice, win some money and then throw some my way. Thanks.